I can't... resist... Overwhelming urge... Must offer Oscar predictions...

My track record as an Oscar prognosticator is, to put it charitably, uneven. On the other hand, I did manage to predict the Best Picture win by Chariots of Fire a quarter-century ago. And I think there may be two similarly surprising upsets on Sunday night. For what they’re worth – which, trust me, likely isn’t much – here are my guesstimates, along with some second-guessing.

BEST PICTURE

WILL WIN: Little Miss Sunshine
SHOULD WIN: The Departed
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Marc Forster’s exquisitely spare yet emotionally resonant Stranger Than Fiction

ACTOR

WILL WIN: Forest Whitaker (The Last King of Scotland)
SHOULD WIN: Peter O’Toole (for, I freely admit, purely sentimental reasons)
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Aaron Eckhart, for his ferociously funny and fearless performance as an amoral PR spinner in Thank You for Smoking

ACTRESS

WILL WIN: Helen Mirren (The Queen)
SHOULD WIN: Helen Mirren
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Gretchen Mol, for her tantalizingly ambiguous portrayal of a ‘50s pin-up queen who may be innocent and knowing in The Notorious Bettie Page

SUPPORTING ACTOR

WILL WIN: Alan Arkin (a.k.a. Upset No. 1) for Little Miss Sunshine
SHOULD WIN: Alan Arkin
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: James McAvoy, if only because he hasn’t been given sufficient credit for his shrewdly nuanced performance as the callow Scottish doctor who’s all-too-easily seduced by a gregariously psychotic Idi Amin in The Last King of Scotland. (It can be argued, of course, that McAvoy actually was the lead, and Whitaker was the supporting player – but, hey, that’s showbiz.)

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

WILL WIN: Abigail Breslin (a.k.a. Upset No. 2) for Little Miss Sunshine
SHOULD WIN: Rinko Kikuchi for Babel
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Maggie Gyllenhaal for either World Trade Center or Stranger Than Fiction

DIRECTOR

WILL WIN: Martin Scorsese (The Departed)
SHOULD WIN: Martin Scorsese
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Robert Altman for the deeply affecting long goodbye of A Prairie Home Companion

By the way: Did you know they're giving out Academy Awards this weekend?

In her L.A. Times article about campaigning for Academy Awards, Mary McNamara offers a textbook example of how a good writer can uncover fascinating factoids and memorable admissions while mining familiar ground. The distinctive novelty of this year's Oscar sweepstakes -- the Best Picture race appears unusually wide open -- makes the piece all the more interesting. Money quote from Amanda Lundberg, founding partner of the PR firm 42West and former head of publicity at Miramax: "The Oscars are about honoring the people who make the films... but also about getting people excited about going to the movies. It wasn't started by the committee for the Nobel Peace Prize."

Elsewhere: Stephen Schaefer offers a handy-dandy guide to Best Foreign Language Film nominees, Richard Corliss waxes euphoric about the great Ennio Morricone -- who'll be honored with a lifetime achievement award during Sunday's Oscarcast -- and Tom O'Neil sees a groundswell of support rising for Babel in the Best Picture category.

Handicapping Oscar, Take 1

Anne Thompson sizes up the Oscar race, seeing potential for Peter O'Toole to pull an upset in the Best Actor race, and more or less anointing Helen Mirren as Best Actress. Best Picture? The industry-savvy Thompson says that, even at this late date, "it's anyone's guess." But she does venture this: "Babel has art and gravitas and emotion. And a sprawling ensemble like Crash."

Let the awards season begin: The National Board of Review honors 'Letters from Iwo Jima'

From Variety: Clint Eastwood's Letters From Iwo Jima has won the National Board of Review's top prize, taking home the first award in the kudos race for 2006. The rest of the top 10: Babel, Blood Diamond, The Departed, The Devil Wears Prada, Flags Of Our Fathers, The History Boys, Little Miss Sunshine, Notes on a Scandal and The Painted Veil.