But seriously, folks: My last-minute, what-the-hell Oscar predictions

And remember: These are predictions, not preferences.

PICTURE: American Sniper

DIRECTOR: Richard Linklater, Boyhood

ACTOR: Michael Keaton, Birdman

ACTRESS: Julianne Moore, Still Alice

SUPPORTING ACTOR: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: The Grand Budapest Hotel

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: The Imitation Game

EDITING: American Sniper

CINEMATOGRAPHY: The Grand Budapest Hotel

PRODUCTION DESIGN: The Grand Budapest Hotel

SONG: "I'm Not Gonna Miss You," Glen Campbell: I'll Be Me

ORIGINAL SCORE: The Grand Budapest Hotel

I want to hear the lamentations of the Oscar bloggers!

What do I want to happen Sunday night during the Oscarcast? Total chaos. Astounding upsets. Epochal disruptions of the space-time continuum. Weeping and wailing, heads exploding, dogs and cats living together...

In short: I want the bloviating Oscar bloggers to be battered and flabbergasted. After lo these many months of endless handicapping, it's no longer a question of who I think will or should win. No: At this point, to paraphrase Michael Caine in The Dark Knight, I want to see the world of the Oscar bloggers burn.

Yes, that's right: I want American Sniper -- or, better still, Selma -- to claim Best Picture. I want Benedict Cumberbatch to snatch the Best Actor prize, and Rosalind Pike to strike Oscar gold as Best Actress. I want to see Wes Anderson tell his fellow Best Director nominees: "Back off, bitches! This motherfucker is mine!" I want Meryl Streep to go for the gusto and grab the Supporting Actress award.  And I really, really want Robert Duvall to wrap his fingers around the Supporting Actor statuette, and tell anyone who doesn't like it to kiss his 84-year-old ass. 

So there.

Think I'll go lie down now.

On Oscar night, Nick Nolte is a dead solid cert

And he owes it all to me.

Oscar Watch II: Many are advertised, but few are chosen

My CultureMap commentary on the Oscar nominations announced this morning (along with my early handicapping of the major races) can be found here.

And the winner will be...

Shortly after last month's announcement of nominations for the 83rd annual Academy Awards, I offered my predictions for winners in the top tier categories. Five weeks later, and just hours away from the Oscarcast, I can't say I'm ready to back away from any of those choices -- except, maybe, in the Best Actress category. Even though I remain convinced that Annette Bening is (a) the sentimental choice for many over-35 Academy voters, and (b) an altogether worthy choice strictly on the merit of her excellent performance in The Kids Are Alright, Natalie Portman now appears to have the momentum -- an impression only reinforced Saturday by her victory at the Spirit Awards -- for her fearless portrayal of  an emotionally frazzled  ballerina who drives herself to extremes while pursuing perfection in the Black Swan (arguably the least likely megaplex box-office hit of the past year).

As for the Best Picture category: The Social Network may have been the front-runner during the  early stages of the race, but The King's Speech looks like the nominee that will gallop into the winner's circle Sunday night. It's a perfectly respectable choice...

Gee, wait, that sounds awfully condescending, and I don't mean to sound that snarky. Truth to tell, I enjoyed King's Speech quite a bit when I viewed a DVD screener that I received because of my status as a voting member of the Houston Film Critics Society. I admired the first-rate performances -- Colin Firth richly deserves the Best Actor prize he almost certainly will win, and  Geoffrey Rush conceivably could score an upset in the Supporting Actor category --  and appreciated the intelligence of the writing and the potency of the emotional uplift.

On the other hand: I never, ever, felt compelled to rush out and see how the movie worked on the big screen. Because, frankly, I think I watched it in the medium where it likely would work best. Again: The King's Speech is a very good movie. But not quite as good as the movies I chose for my Top 10 of 2010. And if, through some unexpected turn of events, The Social Network were to take home the gold, I would not be disappointed.

And if Inception, through some miraculous twist of fate, were to be named Best Picture, I will be, in the immortal words of Addison DeWitt, available for dancing in the streets and shouting from the housetops.

If you're dipping into an Oscar pool this weekend...

My predictions for the 82nd annual Academy Awards are up over at Houston Culture Map.Which is where, by the way, I'll be blogging Sunday during the Oscarcast. Please join me.